Spatiotemporal evolution of investment-carbon emission coupling coordination in China’s electricity market

Promoting the low-carbon development of the electricity market is the key to controlling CO2 emissions and achieving carbon neutrality in China. It requires the coordinated development between investment and carbon emissions in the electricity industry. Based on the panel data on electricity investment and carbon emissions from 2000 to 2019, this study systematically explains the coupling coordination mechanism between electricity investment and carbon emissions. We use the coupling coordination model to calculate the coupling coordination degree of each province. Then, the research uses the GM (1, 1) model to predict the coupling coordination development from 2020 to 2030. The study finds that the development of China’s electricity industry is in good shape. Although the coupling coordination degree has entered barely or primary coordination in most provinces, there are certain fluctuations in recent years; there are spatial differences in coupling and coordinated development among regions: the central region has a high coupling coordination degree, while the eastern and northeastern regions are relatively lagging behind. In the next 10 years, the coupling coordination degree will continue to grow, and all regions will reach the primary coordination. Among them, the central region will reach the intermediate coordination.