Implications of changing trends in hydroclimatic and water quality parameters on estuarine habitats in the Gulf Coastal Plain

Florida’s low elevation and geographic location make it particularly vulnerable to climate change effects such as sea level rise, increased intensity and frequency of storm events, and altered precipitation. Climate change is expected to exacerbate hydrological cycling with potential widespread implications for estuarine habitats that thrive under specific salinity regimes. We used historical data from sites in the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain, USA to examine trends and trend variability of several climatic, hydrologic, and estuarine water quality variables which have implications on seagrass and oyster habitat extent in downstream estuarine environments. We analyzed temperature, precipitation, low-flow and high-flow metrics (including the highest or lowest daily, 7-day average, and 30-day average) for each season annually over the period 1985–2020. We also analyzed estuarine water clarity metrics and salinity within waterbody segments of four estuary systems within the study area. Hydroclimate results showed that temperature increased at most sites. While there was variation in streamflow, the overall trend was declining streamflow. Declining trends were observed in most water clarity metrics, indicating improved clarity, especially in winter. Salinity generally declined across the study area. While overall streamflow decreased, main river stems to the estuaries had increasing trends in maximum streamflow characteristics, likely contributing to the decrease in estuarine salinity across the region. These results indicate that trends in streamflow (both magnitude and timing) in the watershed affect downstream estuarine water quality. These results have important implications on seagrass and oyster restoration and management efforts in the region, indicating that it is important to understand changing climatic and hydrologic conditions and how they may impact the estuarine resources.